Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 19.396524 21.001314 22.727250 24.730148 27.001442 29.510088 32.508451
2025-09-14 16.783790 18.981153 21.503613 24.647580 28.510251 33.167853 39.315141
2025-09-21 14.870330 17.374670 20.396250 24.382119 29.615556 36.427039 46.278560
2025-09-28 13.945817 16.769328 20.331226 25.283061 32.213511 41.953644 57.480456
2025-10-05 12.825008 15.753337 19.573176 25.103309 33.247920 45.449135 66.632674
2025-10-12 11.953933 14.951609 18.976071 25.013997 34.326145 49.136689 77.105659
2025-10-19 11.352862 14.440816 18.700028 25.312415 35.983949 54.023015 91.298279
2025-10-26 10.704537 13.799863 18.162940 25.128763 36.806334 57.614801 104.280228
2025-11-02 10.124337 13.204372 17.628961 24.870436 37.435119 60.951460 118.073817
2025-11-09 9.680686 12.769021 17.288550 24.869799 38.490195 65.319666 136.426591
2025-11-16 9.232606 12.293979 16.844826 24.641370 39.080803 68.858005 154.524965
2025-11-23 8.843591 11.880445 16.461633 24.468774 39.739323 72.691728 175.915494
2025-11-30 8.469708 11.474997 16.073253 24.268670 40.359338 76.721582 201.483316
2025-12-07 8.146999 11.129829 15.757874 24.168425 41.175003 81.496589 234.383292
2025-12-14 7.818696 10.757493 15.372267 23.901677 41.602693 85.434411 268.306661
2025-12-21 7.728229 10.751362 15.588678 24.772484 44.649676 97.574767 359.886578
2025-12-28 7.458442 10.444100 15.275120 24.596165 45.296946 103.008417 425.024189
2026-01-04 7.223936 10.181388 15.020202 24.508657 46.141238 109.418769 512.677115
2026-01-11 7.066837 10.035993 14.958055 24.797924 47.956361 119.886886 669.421157
2026-01-18 6.847716 9.777639 14.680444 24.619521 48.563540 126.383923 817.405664
2026-01-25 6.632147 9.515527 14.380972 24.368707 48.945915 132.272012 994.130364
2026-02-01 6.466320 9.329256 14.207196 24.368057 50.006071 141.499453 1302.348587
2026-02-08 6.279470 9.099566 13.941588 24.146293 50.423299 148.279888 1648.925089